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Mary Radcliffe and Amelia Thomson-DeVeaux
Guest
2022 Election
By Mary Radcliffe and Amelia Thomson-DeVeaux and Mary Radcliffe and Amelia Thomson-DeVeaux
Nov. 17, 2022, at 6:00 AM
While most people perceived the economy as a more pressing concern generally, abortion was a motivating issue for a substantial number of voters.
Erin Lefevre / NurPhoto via AP
Abortion turned out to be a driving force in midterm races across the country, helping Democrats maintain control of the Senate and limit their losses in the House. But if you were following news coverage in the lead-up to the election, the impact of abortion may have come as quite a surprise. In the month before the election, multiple major media outlets reported that voters’ outrage over the Supreme Court’s June decision overruling Roe v. Wade was fading. Inflation, not abortion, seemed to be rising in importance, making Democrats’ focus on abortion look like a risky gamble. “The debate over abortion rights has not emerged as a political silver bullet for Democrats,” reporters for The New York Times wrote on November 4.
Why did election results diverge so dramatically from the media narrative in the last month of campaigning? It turns out that clues to this outcome were present in the polling all along. As the election grew closer, several tracking polls showed that abortion was not receding in importance for voters, particularly Democrats. Inflation generally ranked higher when voters were asked which issues were most important for the country, but abortion remained important for Democrats throughout the summer and fall. And the share of voters who said the issue was motivating their vote actually rose between July and September, according to one pollster. Abortion was also an issue where Democrats were especially unwilling to compromise and vote for a candidate with whom they disagreed — unlike inflation. And in places where abortion was directly on the ballot, voters were particularly likely to say they were casting their ballot based on abortion.
Together, all of this suggests that while most people perceived the economy as a more pressing concern generally, abortion was a motivating issue for a substantial number of voters — and their enthusiasm may have helped give Democrats an edge in the election.
Consistently asking the same question over and over again is one of the best ways to see if public opinion is changing. According to weekly polls by YouGov/The Economist, abortion started growing in importance months ago, particularly after a draft of the opinion overturning Roe v. Wade leaked in early May.
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Abortion Was Always Going To Impact The Midterms
The truth was in the polls all along.
By Mary Radcliffe and Amelia Thomson-DeVeaux and Mary Radcliffe and Amelia Thomson-DeVeaux
Nov. 17, 2022, at 6:00 AM
While most people perceived the economy as a more pressing concern generally, abortion was a motivating issue for a substantial number of voters.
Erin Lefevre / NurPhoto via AP
Abortion turned out to be a driving force in midterm races across the country, helping Democrats maintain control of the Senate and limit their losses in the House. But if you were following news coverage in the lead-up to the election, the impact of abortion may have come as quite a surprise. In the month before the election, multiple major media outlets reported that voters’ outrage over the Supreme Court’s June decision overruling Roe v. Wade was fading. Inflation, not abortion, seemed to be rising in importance, making Democrats’ focus on abortion look like a risky gamble. “The debate over abortion rights has not emerged as a political silver bullet for Democrats,” reporters for The New York Times wrote on November 4.
Why did election results diverge so dramatically from the media narrative in the last month of campaigning? It turns out that clues to this outcome were present in the polling all along. As the election grew closer, several tracking polls showed that abortion was not receding in importance for voters, particularly Democrats. Inflation generally ranked higher when voters were asked which issues were most important for the country, but abortion remained important for Democrats throughout the summer and fall. And the share of voters who said the issue was motivating their vote actually rose between July and September, according to one pollster. Abortion was also an issue where Democrats were especially unwilling to compromise and vote for a candidate with whom they disagreed — unlike inflation. And in places where abortion was directly on the ballot, voters were particularly likely to say they were casting their ballot based on abortion.
Together, all of this suggests that while most people perceived the economy as a more pressing concern generally, abortion was a motivating issue for a substantial number of voters — and their enthusiasm may have helped give Democrats an edge in the election.
Consistently asking the same question over and over again is one of the best ways to see if public opinion is changing. According to weekly polls by YouGov/The Economist, abortion started growing in importance months ago, particularly after a draft of the opinion overturning Roe v. Wade leaked in early May.
Continue reading...